Indian Ocean Commission Summit, Madagascar, 24 April 2025
The island countries of the Indian Ocean region face many challenges in terms of maritime security, such as piracy, trafficking in illicit drugs and people, environmental concerns and border security. The Comoros is at the centre of the region and faces its own unique problems, such as its dispute with France, which has occupied its fourth Comorian island of Mayotte since the proclamation of independence in 1975, domination contrary to international law, according to United Nations resolutions. This note summarizes the challenges faced by the Comoros Islands in the past and in the present. It also highlights some of the security and safety challenges they may face in the future, once France goes ahead with its plans to establish a naval military base in the waters of the Comorian island of Mayotte. It outlines some of the positions already taken by the Comorian government, parliament, political community and civil society against France and outlines some of the actions they could take in the future, independently and in collaboration with other countries in the region, to mitigate these problems
By Mohamed Soulaimana Azhar, at CEDS, Paris
Introduction
Since ancient times, the Indian Ocean has occupied an important place in the strategic calculations of the world’s great powers, mainly because of its economic impact on maritime trade. The Indian Ocean covers twenty per cent of the Earth’s surface and is considered the third largest body of water in the world. However, over the last decade, the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has become a focus of international interest, not only because of its strategic importance, but also because of its enormous commercial potential. As a result, the IOR is increasingly becoming a focal point for regional and international dialogue. It will undoubtedly be an important region for the world in the years to come
Half of the world’s container traffic passes through this region, and its ports handle around 30% of world trade, making it the world’s economic superhighway. 66% of vital oil cargoes and 33% of the world’s bulk freight pass through these waters. The global importance of the Indian Ocean is confirmed by the fact that 40 of the 54 types of raw materials used by American industries come from the Indian Ocean, and that it has some of the world’s largest fishing grounds, providing around 15% of the planet’s total fish catch (around 9 million tons a year, of which the European Union is one of the fishers). In addition, 55% of the Earth’s known oil reserves are in the Indian Ocean, and 40% of the world’s natural gas reserves are in the countries bordering the Indian Ocean. These facts, linked mainly to the blue economy, influence the importance that this region retains in world politics
Threats for the Comoros and the region
The Comoros occupies a strategic position in relation to the countries located in the Northern Mozambique Channel, a State party to the Nairobi Convention (Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa, France, Kenya, Mauritius, Seychelles, Somalia and Tanzania). The island of Mayotte is geographically the closest island to the world’s main shipping lanes, where over a thousand ships a year transport fuel and raw materials from the Middle East to Asia or from Asia to Africa. Because of its advantageous position, its territorial sovereignty and other consequential factors such as international law, regional integration, maritime security, energy and environmental consequences, the Comoros categorically rejects the strategic and speculative calculations of the French project announced by the Minister of the Interior, Mr Manuel Valls, to set up a naval military base in the waters of the Comorian island of Mayotte
Threat to international law and regional integration
Respect for international law and African integration are at the heart of the Comoros’ national and foreign policy interests. This is why the categorical rejection of the project announced by the French government, through its Minister of State, the French Minister for Overseas Territories, to install a naval military base and a command of the French national gendarmerie on the Comorian island of Mayotte, is highlighted by the statement of the Comorian diplomat Mr. Mohamed Mbae, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation of the Comoros. Mohamed Mbae, Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, in charge of the Arab World, the Diaspora, the Francophone and African Integration of the Union of the Comoros, in a statement which reads as follows: ‘… the Comorian government denounces the scope and content of such an announcement, which is hostile and contrary to international law and to the commitments made by the Union of the Comoros and the French Republic to give priority to dialogue in the dispute between them over this island’. Comoros is acting in a way that contributes to the strategic stability of the region. It also serves a national interest, which is to guarantee enhanced maritime security in and around the Indian Ocean and to ensure peace in the region. Thus, the Government of Comoros state must also be aware of the security implications of being so close to the world’s busiest shipping lanes, which carry half of the world’s container traffic
In this context, it should also be noted that extra-regional powers such as France, India, China, the United States of America, Russia and Japan have shown a growing interest in the Indian Ocean and, to this end, have developed major strategies such as the Indian Ocean Strategy, Their strategic military bases in Djibouti, a country located at the junction of the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, not forgetting the American strategic military base located in Diego Garcia and the French base located on Reunion Island, with considerable military capacity, which moreover secures the waters of Mayotte. These powerful nations have also individually identified the Comoros, with its strategic position, as an ideal focal point for implementing their policies and objectives through respective bilateral agreements
These latter illustrations clearly justify that a military naval base in Mayotte would be a threat to the concept of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), of which the Comoros is a State Party, as well as to the principles of other regional political and economic organizations for which the free movement of goods and people is a pillar. It is for this reason that the press release relayed by the Russian Embassy in Madagascar accuses Paris of refusing to respect the territorial integrity of the Comoros and to apply UN resolutions. According to Moscow, ‘the militarization of this sensitive area of the Indian Ocean could have consequences for regional peace’. So this project in Mayotte is a direct threat to regional organizations such as IORA, SADC, COMESA, EAC and IOC
Threat to maritime and energy security
Globalization is largely based on maritime and energy routes. In this context, the sea lanes of the Indian Ocean are of crucial importance for trade and energy security. Ships loaded with oil and gas sail from the Gulf, around the Comoros and into the waters of the South China Sea, while reciprocal traffic carrying finished goods from China, Japan, Korea and the United Arab Emirates moves in the other direction. As for energy, studies conducted by Dr David Obura of the NGO Cordial reveal the hydrocarbon resource capacity of the Northern Mozambique Channel (NMC), of which the Comoros has 44 blocks of energy zones, three times more than the energy wealth of Qatar. These two factors indicate that the installation of a French military base in the heart of the North Mozambique Channel is of concern to many nations whose economies depend on trade and energy. Only the countries of the Indian Ocean region located in the Mozambique Channel are expected to secure their sea route, as many nations depend on the Indian Ocean, with the fuel needs of the many industrializing countries being met by the ease of sea transport via the Indian Ocean. For all these reasons and more, the importance of the geographical position of the Comoros in the global context in general and in the Indian Ocean in particular is very great. Hence, the establishment of a naval base in this oil exploration zone runs the risk of posing a threat to world energy trade and to the regional offshore being explored
To meet the challenge of maritime security in order to counter the French military project, the Comoros can take the initiative of providing and ensuring maritime security. Maritime security being governed by the Comorian coastguard forces, a component of the National Development Army (AND), can contribute to the protection of ships crossing the maritime lines of communication (SLOC) by playing the role of a neutral figure offering equal protection to all. This reduces the influence of extra-regional powers in and around the islands, thereby reducing the risks of piracy, migratory flows and illicit trafficking along the Mozambique Channel maritime route. In addition, by keeping at heart the policy of regional integration for the Comoros on the one hand and the region on the other, by being the main security point in the RIO, the Comoros can also strengthen the regional strategic partnership with the Antananarivo-based Centre Régional de Fusion et d’Information Maritime (CRFIM) and also collaborate with the countries of the region, including Tanzania, Mozambique, Madagascar, Mauritius, the Seychelles, the French island of Réunion, Kenya, Somalia and Djibouti, to strengthen the security of the Indian Ocean region by monitoring maritime threats and all vessels transiting the region Consequently, if the need arises, the Comoros should be the first to launch a call for action
This would involve not only monitoring surface vessels, but also the activities of all submarines, to ensure that they do not undermine the territorial integrity of the Comoros and the region as a whole. Moreover, point 3 of the Moroni Declaration on the future of the Indian Ocean Commission, delivered by its secretary-general Mr. Ahamada M’madi Boléro on 3 August 2019, is not in line with the French militarization project in Mayotte. He said: «After 35 years of existence, the gradual expansion of the IOC’s portfolio of projects and sectors of intervention has enabled it to establish itself as a key player in stability, cooperation and integration in the region. The IOC’s renewed mandate should cover, among other things, issues relating to peace and security, the defense of island interests, the blue economy, climate change, food and health security, maritime safety, civil protection, scientific, academic and cultural cooperation, and the movement of people within the IOC area, particularly in terms of air, maritime and digital connectivity, to bring peoples closer together. There are also plans to promote the competitive advantages of each Member State in certain policies and sectors so that the organization can benefit from them’. This statement by the IOC not only underscores the 1971 UN Declaration making the Indian Ocean a zone of peace, but also makes explicit Dr Rafsanjani’s argument in his statement issued on 23 March 2025 on behalf of his Ushe political party, when he said: «this project for a naval military base is designed, on the one hand, to delude the Mayotte residents and, on the other, to strengthen France’s capacity to control and intervene in this strategic zone, both because of its position at the northern entrance to the Mozambique Channel and because of its natural wealth, particularly in gas and oil». It would therefore be very useful and beneficial for the countries in the region to reach a consensus to strengthen the mechanisms in place, such as the MASE program and the CRFIM agency, in order to ensure the ease of maritime transport, ensure the control and refusal of the enemy by carrying out surveillance at sea day and night in order to prevent the illegal entry of goods and people into the countries in the region and to prevent illegal poaching in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Also, is to put in place a regional strategy to facilitate hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation
In addition, the central geographical position of the Comorian island of Mayotte is unsuitable for militarization, as 70% of the region’s maritime freight passes through the port of Mayotte and the Comoros Islands are at the heart of energy resources that are currently being explored and exploited. Given the vast maritime and energy resources of the Indian Ocean for economic purposes, a naval military base in Mayotte would represent a major threat
Threat to disarmament
The proposed naval base on the Comorian Island of Mayotte poses a serious threat to the Comoros, as any weapons accident would directly affect all four islands of the Comoros due to its proximity
Although the Comoros is a State Party to the Treaty of prohibition of Nuclear Weapon (TPNW) the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) and a signatory to the Political Declaration against Explosive Weapons in Populated Areas (EWIPA) and the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT), this does not prevent France from implementing its weapons project in Mayotte. At present, the French armed forces in the southern Indian Ocean (FAZSOI) threaten the security of the region
France’s military presence in the Indian Ocean, as a nuclear power, in the face of Small Island states that do not possess such capabilities or have access to such technology, poses a growing security risk. The strategic interventions in the Comoros by the red helmet, in complicity with Bob Denard’s multiple coups d’état, bears witness to this. When you look at the French military fleet based in Port Réunion patrolling the Indian Ocean, in particular the Albatros P681, the frigate Floréal F730, the Rieuse P690, the Boudeuse P683, the VSMP and the Vétiver P790, as well as the nautical training centre (CIAN) installed on the Bouilleur beach and a bush camp at Kwale (Mayotte), these vessels already pose a threat to the national and human security of the Comoros and other neighboring states without significant armaments
The Comoros’ ratifications to the UN disarmament instruments reject any kind of installation of a naval military base in Comorian waters. The Comorian statement delivered at the UN headquarters in New York on 29 November 2023 by Ambassador Chanfi Issmail, Permanent Representative of the Comoros to the United Nations, during the second meeting of States Parties of the TPNW (2MSP), clearly justifies the Comoros’ position on disarmament initiatives. He said: «I would like to stress the importance of universalizing TPNW. We must organize, participate in and support all efforts to promote accession to the treaty. It is by uniting our voices and our actions that we will be able to delegitimize, stigmatize and, ultimately, eliminate nuclear weapons. The Comoros has always support and sponsor all resolutions relating to nuclear disarmament »
While the French navy and coastguard on the Comorian island of Mayotte have, to a large extent, succeeded in preventing Comorians from travelling freely to their sister island for better economic opportunities, it should be noted that the installation of a naval military base in the heart of the Northern Mozambique Channel could facilitate arms trafficking by sea, which is one of the safest ways of transferring arms and munitions, leading to conflicts and disputes that could destabilize an entire country or region. Drug and arms trafficking often go hand in hand and constitute one of the most pressing security problems facing the Indian Ocean region. So a naval base on Mayotte would destabilize the entire region. According to Thomas P. M. Barnett, «no ocean is more in need of strategic stability than the Indian Ocean, which is arguably the most nuclearized of the seven seas»
Consequently, in view of the evolution of world policy on the universalization of disarmament, the NGO SALAM, a Comorian civil society organization active in the campaign for the universalisation of African disarmament, reaffirms the determination of Comorian civil society against the French militarization project in Mayotte and calls on the countries located in the Northern Mozambique Channel to ratify the TPNW, NPT, CTBT and ATT in order to strengthen regional cooperation in the framework of disarmament and arms trade regulation. The NGO SALAM, which works to promote peace and security in the Comoros, the Indian Ocean and East Africa, is categorically opposed to this military project in Mayotte, which could have significant short- and long-term effects on the environment, socio- economic development, the global economy, food security and the health of current and future generations, and could disproportionately affect women, girls, infants and children. In short, the French project for a military naval base on the Comorian island of Mayotte runs counter to the regional security strategies promoted by the Indian Ocean Commission, in particular the Governance, Peace and Stability (GPS) and IORA programs
Environmental threat
Rising global temperatures are affecting islands and their coastlines. The Comorian coastline is also affected by changes in global climatic conditions, with forecasts indicating that a significant proportion of the coastline of the Comorian island of Mayotte will be underwater
A rise in sea level of between 0.2m and 0.6m would result in flooding of Mayotte’s coastal regions. However, studies have shown that it would take a rise in sea level of 8 m for the coastal region of the island to be submerged
However, plans for a military naval base on the Comorian island of Mayotte would pose another environmental challenge. The Comoros do not want this project to go ahead because they have no other continuous navigable route, and the project would allow ships to bypass the Comoros. However, as much as this base will have an impact on the status of maritime trade in the Mozambique Channel, it will also threaten the environment and marine resources of the four islands of the Comoros. The military naval base in Mayotte will significantly affect the livelihoods of fishermen, and the risk of possible tides could affect the marine environment of the region. At the close of an extraordinary parliamentary session, the outgoing and incoming President of the National Assembly of the Union of the Comoros, the Honorable Moustadroine Abdou, expressed parliament’s opposition to the plan to establish a French naval base in Mayotte, which he considered to be yet another outrage. In addition, the leader of the parliamentary opposition in the 11th legislature of the Comoros, the Honorable Ibrahim Ali Mzimba, disapproved of this same French project at the press conference formalizing the alliance of the new parliamentary opposition (NO’OR). On the one hand, Mr
Mzimba described this project for a military naval base on Mayotte, an island region rich in resources, as being against a sustainable development framework based on the rational use of the sea and, on the other hand, against the natural capital of the NMC. This explains why the improved ecosystems, species and ecological processes, protected and enhanced, supporting the region’s populations and economies in the future, will all be destroyed once France succeeds in installing a military naval base on Mayotte Due to the vastness of the ocean and the availability of marine resources, fishing is another factor that plays an important role in the RIO. Comorian waters are teeming with marine resources, providing an important source of income for the island’s fishermen. However, due to the wealth of marine resources, a naval base in these waters would have environmental consequences that could reduce fish reproduction and developing activities. As a result, the Comorian navy faces a major environmental challenge, not only in protecting the waters and resources against illegal fishing activities, but also in meeting the challenge of militarization
Conclusion
The Comoros, ideally situated at the heart of the Mozambique Channel in the wider Indian Ocean region, plays a leading role in promoting South-South cooperation. It is important for the future of the region that small states like the Comoros develop and participate in its security and development. The gradual increase in international maritime traffic will increase the flow not only of ships, but also of people and equipment, amplifying potential security risks from abroad. Consequently, Comoros must guarantee a safe environment for users to enable the unhindered development of trade and commerce. Aware of these security implications, the Comoros expressed the need to adopt a regional strategy for maritime security in the Indian Ocean at the 2023 Inter-ministerial conference on the blue economy in Moroni. It is therefore, time for the Comoros to adopt a national strategy for maritime security incorporating the above-mentioned salient points, regional integration and its foreign policy position
With the emergence of a strategic environment in the IOR, Comoros has a huge obligation to prevent transnational crime, ensure the safe passage of merchant vessels and prevent terrorist activities in the EEZ and beyond. As the world’s economies expand, the greatest maritime challenge facing the Comoros as a whole would be the installation of a military naval base in its waters. With a large body of water towards the tip of the island of Mayotte, the Comoros is obliged to strengthen its capacity and capability for search and rescue (SAR) operations. They need to optimize to the point of leading such operations in the region with other friendly nations
Moreover, according to Kaplan, «…the future of military activity will be maritime in nature as military activity tends to follow commercial and economic activity’. If the Comoros does not reorganize its security measures in the RIO, the above-mentioned threat factors could gradually overwhelm the situation. As long as the RIO remains at the centre of world politics, the non-existence of a naval military base in the Mozambique Channel will be an added advantage for the countries of this region, as it will help to mitigate maritime, inter-regional security and arms threats. To this end, the exchange of intelligence in real time and better surveillance of the seas to ensure that ships do not pass unnoticed and are not controlled are just some of the measures that the Comoros can take to safeguard its waters. Furthermore, in view of the protection of the maritime environment, Comoros must ensure that merchant ships comply with international laws, including those relating to environmental protection
Comoros can play an active role in safeguarding this respect for international law, thereby mitigating the threat to its environment
It is beneficial for the countries of the Indian Ocean to cooperate with each other in order to eliminate and counter any military project threatening the peace, security and development of the Northern Mozambique Channel. It is also important to bear in mind the assets that each State possesses. In entering into partnerships, States must respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the other State, even if they are trying to safeguard the same area of interest. To this end, the member countries of the Nairobi Convention, the IOC and the IORA must take into consideration the issue of the Comorian island of Mayotte under French administration
It is therefore incumbent on the States in the RIO to cooperate closely with the other mechanisms established within the framework of maritime affairs cooperation (IOMAC) to oppose the French plan to install a military naval base in Mayotte, in order to preserve the maritime security and safety of the States located in the NMC and those that benefit from its maritime route. The Comoros, located at the centre of this important region and in search of their fourth island of Mayotte, could take a diplomatic initiative with the latter. In addition, all states with economic interests in the Mozambique Channel, regardless of their continent of origin, can strengthen their naval cooperation with the Comoros in order to mitigate the threats to Comorian territorial security posed by the French militarization project, as well as the conditional consequences of goods and services transiting through this global lifeline
Notes:
1. The Indian Ocean Maritime Security and regional undercurrents, Sunday time online 20th November 2011
2. ASCLM/SWIOFP 2012. Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis for the western Indian Ocean. Volume 1&2. ISBN : 978-0-620-57042-8
3. 4. 5. CBD (2012) southern Indian Ocean Regional workshop: ecology or Biology Significant Marine Areas
Global Partnership for Oceans 2013: http://www.globalpartnershipforocean.org Dzitso La Ushe : Toutes les forces vives doivent se mobiliser contre le projet d’une base navale militaire française à Mayotte, Face book : Ushe, (23 mars 2025),
6. Conférence ministérielle sur l’économie bleue et l’action climatique en Afrique : www.uneca.org : blue–future- conférence (14 juin 2023),
7. Le nord du canal de Mozambique : HORalison@wwf.mgHORalison@wwf.mg
8. https://guide.visitedjibouti.dj
9. Communique du Ministère des Affaires Étrangère de l’Union des Comores (15 mars 2025), 10. Forces armées de la zone sud de l’océan indien, abrégées en FAZSOI, 11. Ocean Indien : BIOT- Diego Garcia : https://cnes.fr 12. Mutation et transitions dans l’Ocean Indien No 7- 2021 : enjeux géopolitique entre compétions et coopération 13. Discours des Comores pour la 2MSP des états parties au TIAN, 29, novembre 2023
