The Future of Global Power Between Competition, Prudence, and the Risk of a New Great Confrontation
“History does not usually change when a war begins. It changes when the great powers decide how far they are willing to take it.”
The Planet Where War Became an Everyday Reality Again
The world is going through one of the periods of greatest geopolitical tension since the end of World War II. The war between Russia and Ukraine is redefining European security; the confrontation between Israel and Iran is keeping a strategic flashpoint open in the Middle East; and the competition between the United States and China extends across Taiwan, the Indo-Pacific, technology, and the world’s principal trade routes. At the same time, the European Union is strengthening its defense, India is consolidating its rise, and the BRICS are expanding their influence.
There are no longer any completely isolated conflicts. Every move affects markets, alliances, energy, and supply chains. The central question is not who will win a battle, but what architecture will emerge when the wars subside, become frozen, or end. Looking toward 2035 does not mean predicting the future, but observing the trends that are already transforming the century.
“When the savanna fills with smoke, no lion can claim that the fire belongs only to its neighbor.”
The United States
The Power of a Lion That Still Dominates the Savanna
The United States remains the world’s leading military power. Its network of bases, naval capabilities, technological leadership, and the weight of the dollar allow it to operate across several continents. However, managing the war in Ukraine, the confrontation between Israel and Iran, and the competition with China requires economic, diplomatic, and industrial resources that no power possesses without limita.
The United States retains extraordinary advantages, but it must decide where to concentrate its power and how to preserve its alliances without turning every disagreement into a test of obedience.
“Even the strongest lion discovers that no savanna can be watched in its entirety at the same time.”
Russia
The Power the World Tried to Isolate
Russia continues to occupy a central place in the global balance. It possesses the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, vast natural resources, and a territory extending between Europe and the Pacific. Its military industry, aerospace capabilities, and influence in the Arctic make it an actor that cannot be excluded from any lasting strategic architecture.
The war in Ukraine and Western sanctions transformed the conflict into a broader confrontation. Nevertheless, Moscow sustained its military capabilities, reorganized part of its economy, and deepened its ties with China, Iran, India, Central Asia, and the BRICS. Looking toward 2035, the question will not be whether Russia will remain a power, but how it will redefine its position, what relationship it will maintain with Europe, and how much it will depend on its new eastern partnerships.
“Geography does not disappear because alliances change.”
China
The Power Building the Twenty-First Century
China has ceased to be merely the factory of the world and has become one of the great centers of gravity of the international system. Its power combines manufacturing, trade, infrastructure, financing, technology, and diplomacy. From Asia to Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East, Beijing is expanding its presence through ports, logistics corridors, energy, telecommunications, and long-term investments.
Under Xi Jinping, China is modernizing its Armed Forces and accelerating the development of artificial intelligence, quantum computing, the space industry, electric vehicles, and semiconductors. Competition with the United States is also taking place in laboratories, data, and supply chains. The great question looking toward 2035 will be whether it will become the planet’s largest economy and whether that change can be managed without provoking an open confrontation.
“Some powers advance with armies; others begin by building ports.”
The European Union
The Economic Power That Rediscovered Defense
For decades, the European Union built its influence on integration, trade, innovation, the rule of law, and cooperation. The war in Ukraine altered that confidence and reminded the continent that prosperity also requires security. The political, financial, humanitarian, and military support provided to Kyiv prompted larger defense budgets, new industrial production, and closer cooperation among the member states.
Europe is attempting to reduce energy dependencies, protect strategic industries, and strengthen its technological autonomy without abandoning the transatlantic alliance. It possesses the talent, institutions, and resources to play a decisive role, but it will have to reconcile differing national interests and build a more coherent foreign policy toward Russia, China, the United States, and the Middle East.
“Great economies also discover that history demands the ability to protect wealth.”
India
The Giant That Learned to Speak with Everyone
India is advancing through a different strategy. With its enormous population, dynamic economy, technology industry, and nuclear capabilities, it has become a pillar of the new balance. Its principal strength lies in preserving its autonomy: it maintains ties with the United States and Europe, participates in the BRICS, cooperates with Japan and Australia, and preserves its historic relationship with Russia.
The war in Ukraine demonstrated that flexibility. New Delhi continued importing Russian oil while deepening technological and security agreements with the West. It is also investing in infrastructure, manufacturing, innovation, and space development. If it maintains stability and growth, by 2035 it will not merely be a regional power, but one of the great arbiters of the international system.
“Strategic independence does not mean walking alone, but deciding whom to walk with.”
Israel, Iran, and Pakistan
The Fire That Could Change the Century
The Middle East concentrates energy, decisive maritime routes, and profound rivalries. The confrontation between Israel and Iran has ceased to be exclusively regional: it influences Washington, Moscow, Beijing, Brussels, and New Delhi, disrupts markets, and forces strategic priorities to be recalculated. Israel possesses military and technological superiority and a close alliance with the United States; Iran retains territorial depth, energy resources, and regional influence built over decades.
Pakistan also appears on that same chessboard, a nuclear power located between South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East. Its ties with China, rivalry with India, and proximity to Afghanistan and Iran give it an importance that is frequently underestimated. An escalation would force Islamabad to balance security, economics, and diplomacy. Should the conflict expand, the consequences could reach Hormuz, oil routes, trade chains, and the stability of the entire international system.
“Wars may begin between two states; their consequences rarely respect borders.”
2035 — What Might Russia Look Like After the War?
If the war in Ukraine evolves toward a stable ceasefire or a political agreement, Russia will have to move from the military effort to economic reconstruction, industrial modernization, and the redefinition of its relationships. A frozen conflict, gradual sanctions relief, or prolonged distrust with the West could emerge while Moscow strengthens its cooperation with China, India, the Middle East, and the BRICS.
Whatever the outcome, Russia will retain energy resources, scientific capabilities, a military industry, Arctic influence, and nuclear power. No sustainable European security architecture will be able to ignore it. The challenge will be to reduce the risk of another escalation without confusing negotiation with capitulation. Borders can be changed in a few months; rebuilding trust takes decades. Looking toward 2035, Russia’s place will depend both on its own decisions and on the ability of Europe and the United States to imagine a possible strategic coexistence.
“Wars end with an armistice; geopolitics begins precisely on that day.”
2035 — The United States, China, and the New Balance of Power
The competition between the United States and China will probably define the first half of the twenty-first century. By 2035, power will not be measured solely by aircraft carriers, military bases, or arsenals, but by leadership in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, quantum computing, space, energy, and new production chains. Contemporary empires are also built inside laboratories.
The United States will retain scientific, financial, and military advantages; China will continue expanding its industrial and commercial influence. The decisive question will be whether both powers keep their competition within the boundaries of deterrence, diplomacy, and managed interdependence, or move toward a confrontation capable of dividing the planet. Other regions will not remain passive observers: they will seek investment, technology, and autonomy.
“When several lions understand that none can dominate the savanna, the art of balance begins.”
2035 — BRICS, Africa, and South America: The New Chessboard of Resources
By 2035, the BRICS could expand their influence through new members, trade in national currencies, infrastructure investment, and cooperation among Asia, Africa, and Latin America. They will not necessarily replace the existing order, but they will contribute to a more widely distributed system.
Africa will be strategic because of its minerals, agricultural land, energy, and young population. Lithium, copper, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements will attract the United States, China, Europe, India, and Russia. South America will also occupy a decisive position thanks to its copper, lithium, iron, water, food, biodiversity, and renewable energy. Its challenge will not be merely to sell resources, but to transform them into science, industry, employment, and technology. Without regional coordination, it will continue exporting raw materials within a competition designed by others.
“Peoples do not become impoverished because they lack wealth, but because they fail to understand its strategic value.”
2035 — The Savanna We Will Inherit
No empire is eternal, and no balance remains unchanged. However, there is a difference between competing for influence and destroying the conditions required for coexistence. Today’s wars affect energy, food, supply chains, migration, and economies located thousands of miles away. In an interdependent world, the security of some ultimately conditions the security of all.
By 2035, many current leaders will have left power, but their decisions will remain embedded in borders, alliances, debts, and collective memories. The world may be more multipolar, and technological competition could partially replace military confrontation. Nothing is guaranteed. Geopolitics is not merely about managing power, but also about managing its consequences. True leadership will not be remembered for the wars it won, but for those it had the intelligence to prevent.
“When the savanna burns, no lion can breathe air different from that of the others.”
Final Closing
2035 will not ask who roared the loudest in 2026. It will ask what the great powers did when there was still a possibility of preventing the fire from spreading.
“The lions will continue competing and defending their interests.”
“History will have to determine whether they understood in time that no victory justifies turning the entire savanna into ashes.”
“The greatest demonstration of power will not be conquering the planet. It will be leaving behind a planet where life is still worth living…”
Author: Mauricio Herrera Kahn
Brief Bibliography
• National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World.
• Joseph S. Nye Jr., The Future of Power.
• Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers.
• Henry Kissinger, World Order.
• Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?
• Munich Security Conference, Munich Security Report.
• Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI Yearbook.
