by Asif Showkat Kallol (Dhaka Bureau)
Bangladesh will frame its upcoming national budget for the 2025–26 fiscal year with the global war environment and rising geopolitical tensions firmly in mind, according to officials familiar with the discussions.
Government policymakers say the budget will take into account the economic risks created by geopolitical conflicts, including pressures on energy markets, trade flows, and inflation. Revenue targets, subsidies, and sectoral spending priorities will be set based on these evolving realities, finance ministry sources said.
The government plans to design what officials describe as an ‘inclusive and welfare-oriented’ budget, with particular emphasis on controlling inflation and expanding social safety nets. Officials said the plan includes widening the coverage of social protection programmes, rationalising subsidies, and strengthening agriculture-based industries to support rural economic activity.
Prime Minister Tarique Rahman has reportedly instructed officials to ensure that the new budget prioritises public welfare rather than benefiting specific groups or individuals. The guidance was delivered during a meeting with senior officials at the prime minister’s office, according to people briefed on the discussions.
Following the directive, the prime minister’s economic and planning adviser, Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, held consultations with Finance Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury to discuss the policy framework for the next fiscal year.
Officials said the government also intends to move away from traditional revenue collection practices and build a fully technology-based tax administration system. Both tax and non-tax revenue sources will receive equal policy attention in an effort to strengthen public finances without imposing additional burdens on ordinary citizens.
Energy security is expected to be another major focus of the budget. Authorities plan to prioritise solutions to the country’s recurring energy shortages while shifting development policy away from large-scale megaprojects toward more localized, region-based initiatives.
New social programmes, including the proposed ‘family card’ and ‘farmer card’ schemes, are also expected to be included in the national budget as part of efforts to expand welfare coverage and support vulnerable households.
Government officials said the budget would emphasize fiscal discipline, including reducing luxury spending in public expenditure. At the same time, policymakers aim to attract both domestic and foreign investment and create new employment opportunities.
Increasing the tax-to-GDP ratio remains a key objective. Officials are working with proposals from multiple sectors to prepare what they describe as an inclusive fiscal framework that also prioritises funding for health and education.
The government is also expected to introduce measures aimed at revitalizing Bangladesh’s stock market. Policy initiatives under discussion include easing lending conditions for the private sector and strengthening regulatory transparency in financial institutions.
Authorities are exploring ways to encourage greater participation by expatriate Bangladeshis in the capital market. Investors from countries with large Bangladeshi diaspora communities- including Malaysia, Indonesia and several Middle Eastern states- are being targeted through potential investment gateways designed to facilitate cross-border participation.
Titumir recently said the government was considering mechanisms to make it easier for expatriates to invest in Bangladesh’s capital market, while also working to restore public confidence in the sector.
‘We have observed repeated market manipulation during previous administrations,’ he said at a recent event. ‘Ensuring transparency and accountability in the market will be essential to rebuilding trust.’
Meanwhile, Abdur Rahman Khan, chairman of the National Board of Revenue, said the next budget would aim to increase both tax and non-tax revenue while avoiding additional tax pressure on ordinary citizens.
In recent meetings with officials from the revenue authority and the budget preparation committee, Titumir reviewed strategies for boosting revenue collection in the next fiscal year. Discussions also included recommendations from the International Monetary Fund and an assessment of Bangladesh’s current revenue performance.
Officials also examined the causes of the shortfall in revenue collection during the current fiscal year and explored potential reforms to expand the tax base.
Economist Mustafizur Rahman of the Centre for Policy Dialogue said an inclusive budget should ensure that economic benefits reach all citizens without discrimination based on geography, age, gender, or social status.
‘If the new government succeeds in preparing an inclusive budget, it would be welcome,’ he said, adding that policymakers should avoid setting unrealistic revenue targets that could put broader economic stability at risk.
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The Author:
Asif Showkat Kallol: Works for a German-based online outlet, The Mirror Asia, and as Head of News and Contributor, Pressenza- Dhaka Bureau.
