Four weeks after Michigan’s Democratic primary, the landscape around Abdul El-Sayed’s Senate campaign has changed. In the report published two weeks after the vote, we asked whether a progressive opposed to US military aid to Israel could win in November in one of the country’s most closely contested states. That first report concluded that it was too early to speak of a progressive victory; what had begun was a political experiment. There is still no answer. But new elements are now visible.
The AIPAC effect: a possible boomerang
During the primary, AIPAC and affiliated groups spent more than $30 million against El-Sayed. On 22 August, Axios reported a striking reversal: allies of Republican Mike Rogers asked AIPAC not to advertise publicly on his behalf. After a conversation between Rogers and AIPAC president Michael Tuchin, the group shelved an ad it had already prepared against El-Sayed.[3]
Rogers has not changed his position on Israel. The issue is electoral: a highly visible AIPAC presence could reinforce the very message with which El-Sayed won the primary — opposition to the power of big money and pressure groups. Beyond a certain point, an organisation’s financial strength can also become a political liability.
From early signs to a clearer strategy
Three weeks after the primary, we had begun to see an effort to repair relations with Jewish Democrats. That effort has now become concrete. On 29 August, El-Sayed apologised to the Michigan Jewish Democratic Caucus for comments he made after the March attack on Temple Israel, acknowledging that it was not the moment to place the attack in the wider context of violence in the Middle East.[4]
The following day, before roughly 300 Jewish Democrats at the “Summer Simcha”, he repeated the apology. His campaign is also seeking a staff member dedicated to relations with the Jewish community. El-Sayed, however, has not abandoned his underlying positions on Gaza and Palestinian rights.[5]
This is not yet a completed reconciliation. Deep mistrust remains. But the approach is becoming clearer: distinguish criticism of the Israeli government from the security and belonging of American Jews, while maintaining his position on Gaza.
The base of support — and the votes that may decide the race
At the same time, El-Sayed is trying to return the campaign’s centre of gravity to the cost of living, healthcare, schools and economic conditions. Amid controversy over streamer Hasan Piker, he insisted that the Senate race is about affordability in Michigan and access to healthcare.[6]
These issues form an important and relatively stable part of El-Sayed’s political base. Gaza, Israel, AIPAC and relations with Jewish voters may instead matter most at the margin. We do not know that they are the most important issues for most voters; but in a race this close, even small shifts can decide the result. Some voters who left the Democrats in 2024 may return because of Gaza; some Jewish Democrats may become less distrustful; others may move away if reassurances seem insufficient.
The polls: movement, not yet a trend
An EPIC-MRA poll of 600 likely voters interviewed from 22 to 28 August puts El-Sayed at 47% and Rogers at 43%, compared with 43% to 46% in Rogers’s favour in the same firm’s late-July survey. With a margin of error of ±4 points, however, it would be premature to describe this as a consolidated lead.[7]
The hardest test: expanding without losing
Four weeks after the primary, the new development is therefore not a change of political line, but a change of method. El-Sayed is trying to preserve his core positions while reducing the fractures that could prevent him from building a majority.
It is a difficult balance. If he retreats too far on Gaza, he risks losing some of the voters who returned toward the Democrats precisely because of that issue. If he fails to rebuild trust among some Jewish and moderate voters, he could lose on the other side the few points that may decide the election in Michigan. The test over the coming months will therefore be not only how much support he can attract, but whether he can expand the coalition without unravelling the one that brought him this far.
Notes and sources
[1] Kazuhiro Imamura, “Michigan, Two Weeks On: What Abdul El-Sayed’s Victory Really Tells Us,” Pressenza, 23 August 2026.
[2] Kazuhiro Imamura, “Michigan, tre settimane dopo le primarie: due sviluppi che cambiano il quadro,” Pressenza Italian edition, 27 August 2026 (the three-week update has not yet appeared in English).
[3] Alex Isenstadt, “Scoop: Mike Rogers-AIPAC rupture roils Michigan Senate race,” Axios, 22 August 2026.
[4] Joey Cappelletti, “El-Sayed apologizes for comments he made responding to an attack on a Michigan synagogue,” Associated Press, 30 August 2026.
[5] Andrew Lapin, “‘All of us have to bring down violence wherever we see it,’ El-Sayed says following address to Jewish Democrats,” Jewish Telegraphic Agency, 31 August 2026.
[6] “From Hasan Piker to Jesse Watters, El-Sayed seeks to focus on affordability amid scrutiny from both sides,” The Guardian, 25 August 2026.
[7] “2026 Polls: Michigan Senate,” 270toWin, updated 29 August 2026 (EPIC-MRA: 600 likely voters, El-Sayed 47%, Rogers 43%, ±4%).
