Taiwan Practices a Blockade, China Fires Toward the Pacific, North Korea Tests Missiles Again, and Japan Discovers That Russia Also Lives on Its Border
“Wars begin long before the first shot is fired: they begin when too many countries start simultaneously practicing how to survive the day someone decides to fire it…”
TAIWAN IS NO LONGER TRAINING ONLY WITH SOLDIERS
Taiwan is concluding its ten-day Han Kuang exercises, simulating an invasion and, for the first time, joint counter-blockade operations between the Navy and the Coast Guard. It also deliberately reduced mobile internet speeds for 30 minutes in part of the territory to test how the population would function under communications disruptions. During the same period, Taiwan reported the presence of Chinese military aircraft and vessels around the island.
“When a country begins practicing not only how to shoot, but how to live without the internet, move hospitals, and escort food supplies, it is no longer rehearsing a battle: it is rehearsing a society at war.”
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA: THE BORDER NO ONE WANTS TO CALL A BORDER
The Philippines, the United States, and Japan conducted new joint naval exercises in the South China Sea between July 21 and 25, following another confrontation between Philippine and Chinese vessels. Manila is building an increasingly broad network of military cooperation around itself, while Beijing views much of that presence as a strategy of containment.
Here we can introduce Scarborough, the trade routes, the U.S.-Philippines defense treaty, and the first island chain.
“In the South China Sea, everyone says they are protecting navigation; the problem is that every year they need more warships to prove it.”
JAPAN DISCOVERS THAT THE PACIFIC ALSO HAS A RUSSIAN BORDER
Vladimir Putin’s visit to Iturup, one of the Kuril Islands controlled by Russia and claimed by Japan as part of its Northern Territories, prompted a formal protest from Tokyo. It was Putin’s first visit to the disputed archipelago and comes at a time when Russian-Japanese relations are already deeply deteriorated by Ukraine, sanctions, and growing military cooperation between Moscow and Beijing.
“Japan looks toward China to the west, North Korea to the north, and now once again discovers that Russia also holds a key to a door that World War II never completely closed…”
NORTH KOREA: THE MISSILE AS A PUNCTUATION MARK
On August 11, North Korea launched another ballistic missile from Wonsan toward the sea east of the peninsula. It traveled approximately 700 kilometers and was the eleventh suspected North Korean ballistic missile launch of 2026, according to South Korean assessments. It occurred only days before the Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises, scheduled from August 17 to 27 by the United States and South Korea.
“Pyongyang has turned the missile into a form of diplomatic punctuation: when it wants to add an exclamation point, it launches one into the sea.”
CHINA SENDS A MESSAGE TOWARD THE PACIFIC
China’s July 6 launch from a nuclear submarine toward the Pacific generated alarm because Washington said it had received only a few hours’ notice and insufficient information. Beijing responded that it had notified the relevant countries in advance and that it was a routine exercise conducted in accordance with international law.
Subsequently, 40 countries called for stricter standards and at least 24 hours’ notice for long-range ballistic missile tests.
“A missile can fall into an empty ocean and still pass through forty foreign ministries before touching the water.”
THE HARD NUMBERS: HOW MUCH IT COSTS TO PREPARE FOR WAR
China officially allocated 1.94 trillion yuan to defense in 2026. Taiwan raised its defense spending, calculated under NATO standards, to NT$949.5 billion, equivalent to 3.32% of its GDP, and also projected a special program of up to NT$1.25 trillion between 2026 and 2033 to strengthen asymmetric capabilities and resilience. The United States, for its part, submitted a US$1.01 trillion national defense request for FY2026, explicitly identifying deterrence against China in the Indo-Pacific as one of its priorities.
In the final draft, we will convert the Chinese and Taiwanese figures into USD so that the entire comparison is expressed in the same currency.
“Peace in the Indo-Pacific is still written in diplomatic communiqués, but every year it is financed with military budgets worth hundreds of billions of dollars.”
THE LIONS ARE MOVING INTO POSITION
The United States is reinforcing Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.
It is expanding military coordination, access agreements, joint exercises, and deterrence capabilities across the western Pacific. Washington is also strengthening a network of alliances designed to complicate any rapid change in the regional balance of power.
China is expanding its naval, missile, and nuclear capabilities.
Beijing is building a larger and more sophisticated force capable of operating farther from its shores and contesting access to strategic waters. Its military modernization increasingly combines conventional power, long-range missiles, nuclear deterrence, cyber capabilities, and space-based systems.
Russia is once again projecting itself into the Pacific.
Despite the weight of the war in Europe, Moscow continues to preserve a strategic presence in the Russian Far East and the North Pacific. Its cooperation with China, naval deployments, and military signaling show that Russia still intends to remain part of the Indo-Pacific balance.
Japan is increasing its military capabilities.
Tokyo is moving beyond the limits that defined much of its postwar defense posture, expanding defense spending, missile capabilities, and operational readiness. Japan increasingly sees regional security not as a distant concern, but as a direct question of national survival and strategic autonomy.
Australia is deepening regional agreements.
Canberra is strengthening defense cooperation through arrangements such as AUKUS and closer coordination with the United States, Japan, and other regional partners. Australia is also investing in submarines, long-range capabilities, intelligence, and infrastructure intended to give it greater strategic weight in the Indo-Pacific.
India watches from the Indian Ocean, unwilling to become a subordinate piece in any bloc.
New Delhi cooperates with the United States, Japan, and Australia when its interests converge, but it carefully protects its strategic autonomy. India seeks to contain excessive Chinese influence while avoiding dependence on any single alliance system or external power.
“The lions are not attacking one another directly yet; they are simply bringing their claws closer to the edge of the same chessboard…”
MISCALCULATION: THE REAL ENEMY
The column should not say that war is inevitable. It would be stronger to say exactly the opposite: none of the major actors appears to need it, but all of them are building conditions in which an incident could become more difficult to contain.
Taiwan, Scarborough, the Kurils, Korea, nuclear submarines, multinational exercises, missiles, and defense pacts are different conflicts. The danger begins when alliance systems succeed in connecting them.
“Regional wars rarely begin because everyone wants to fight; sometimes they begin because too many actors discover, too late, that they were already committed to respond…”
THE OCEAN WHERE EVERYONE IS LEARNING TO SHOOT
The Indo-Pacific continues to move containers, chips, oil, gas, automobiles, and raw materials. It is still a vast commercial space before it is a battlefield. But that is precisely why militarization matters so much: the place that is economically writing the twenty-first century is also learning militarily how it could destroy a considerable part of it.
“The Indo-Pacific is not at war yet. What is disturbing is seeing how many countries are devoting money, technology, and military exercises to practicing exactly what they will do if one day it is…”
“The danger does not begin when the lions decide to fight. It begins when all of them become convinced that they must sleep with one eye open and one claw on the trigger…”
Brief Bibliography
• Reuters. 2026 coverage of Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises, Chinese military activity around the island, North Korean missile launches, and strategic tensions in the Indo-Pacific.
• U.S. Department of Defense. FY 2026 Defense Budget Request. Reference on U.S. strategic priorities in the Indo-Pacific, military modernization, and competition with China.
• Ministry of National Defense, Taiwan. 2026 National Defense Budget and Han Kuang Exercise Materials. Information on military spending, civilian resilience, defense against blockades, and preparation for possible communications disruptions.
• Taiwan Ministry of National Defense – Han Kuang 42 Exercises (2026):
https://www.mnd.gov.tw/en/News/PressRelease/86484
Explains invasion and blockade scenarios, electronic warfare, communications disruptions, and Taiwan’s military preparedness.
• U.S. Department of Defense – FY 2026 Defense Budget:
Details the U.S. defense budget of US$1.01 trillion and explicitly identifies deterrence against China in the Indo-Pacific as a strategic priority.
