Americans are anxious over the economy, and that could cause the Senate, House, or both to flip in November’s midterm elections.
The cost of living is Americans’ No. 1 complaint, as prices of food and shelter have outpaced wages and show no sign of reverting to pre-COVID levels. At the same time, the quintessential American dream of homeownership is increasingly out of reach.
This occurs even years after the COVID-19 pandemic and nationwide protests in 2020 caused millions of affluent Americans to flee cities, which jacked up home prices in suburbs nationwide.
The party in power, President Donald Trump’s Republicans, is expected to feel the brunt of voters’ bitterness in November’s midterm elections.
“Both the House and Senate are up for grabs right now,” Brookings Institution Senior Fellow Darrell West told Xinhua.
“Voters are in a sour mood due to rising prices and the disruptions of the Iran War. Republicans face considerable headwinds as they navigate these issues because most GOP legislators have voted with President Trump over the past year,” West said.
“His unpopularity is a major challenge for Republicans in the November elections,” West said.
People walk past the U.S. Capitol building in Washington, D.C., the United States, Jan. 19, 2025. (Xinhua/Wu Xiaoling)
Other experts noted that economic anxiety does not often bode well for the party in power. Historically, voters tend to punish that party when they head to the polls in midterm elections.
Christopher Galdieri, a political science professor at Saint Anselm College in the northeastern state of New Hampshire, told Xinhua: “Economic anxiety is usually bad news for the party in power. When people are worried about paying bills or buying gas or putting food on the table, they blame whoever is in charge.”
“With Donald Trump in the White House and Republicans in charge of Congress, that’s who voters are going to take their fears out on,” Galdieri said.
Some 37 percent of registered U.S. voters responding to the poll said the Democratic Party has a better approach to the U.S. economy, compared with 36 percent who picked the Republican Party, marking the first time that Americans view Democrats as better stewards of the economy than Republicans in nearly a decade, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday.
Galdieri thinks that it’s possible that the House could flip, although the Senate is difficult to predict.
“I think it’s very likely the House flips, unless something shocking happens between now and November. The Senate is a tougher call,” Galdieri said. Democrats would need to flip four seats while defending all of the ones they currently hold. That would mean winning seats in states like Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, or even Texas, Galdieri added.
Some experts said that voter turnout will be key to November’s elections.
Clay Ramsay, a researcher at the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland, told Xinhua: “The big question mark is how attitudes toward the economy will affect turnout — will economic problems increase people’s interest in voting?”
According to a Pew Research survey published on July 23, Democrats hold the lead in the number of voters who would back a Democratic candidate, and the party has an advantage in terms of voter enthusiasm.
Among registered voters, 43 percent say they would back a Democratic candidate for Congress if the election were held today, while 37 percent would back a Republican, the poll found.
Seventy percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents say “it really matters” which party controls Congress in November, while 60 percent of Republicans and Republican leaners say the same, the poll found.
Republicans, experts said, need to find a way to argue in favor of the GOP economic platform.
“The Republicans need to create some basis for economic optimism this fall — starting in September. It’s surprising that they have made no headway on this by now,” Ramsay said.
By contrast, Democrats need to be clear in explaining the party’s economic agenda, experts said.
“Democrats’ biggest problem, in my view, is that once they see both the economy and the war are hurting Republicans, they start to coast…They need to present a clear and brief positive agenda,” Ramsay said.
