The woes of Rohingya refugees are lingering due to the repatriation process still being in the dark. Nothing has improved their situation that could change their fortune. Nearly 1.2 million Rohingya refugees continue to endure inhumane living conditions in Bangladesh, primarily in the overcrowded camps of Ukhia and Teknaf in Cox’s Bazar. Cramped shelters, inadequate sanitation, poor hygiene, and limited access to basic services have turned daily life into a prolonged humanitarian struggle for last ten years. Yet despite this immense burden on both the refugees and Bangladesh, Myanmar has shown little genuine willingness to create the conditions necessary for their safe, voluntary, and dignified repatriation. The continued absence of meaningful action from Myanmar has left the repatriation process stalled, making one of the world’s largest refugee crises appear trapped in an endless cycle of uncertainty.
By Md. Al-Amin
As of 2026, Bangladesh is hosting approximately 1.2 million Rohingya refugees, making it the world’s largest refugee-hosting country for a stateless population. According to UNHCR, around 1.14 million registered Rohingya live in 33 densely populated refugee camps across Ukhia and Teknaf in Cox’s Bazar. At the same time, about 35,000 had been relocated in 2020 to Bhasan Char in Noakhali to reduce pressure on the camps. The vast majority fled Myanmar following the military crackdown in 2017, and despite repeated repatriation efforts, they remain in Bangladesh due to the absence of safety, citizenship rights, and stable conditions in Myanmar’s Rakhine State. Since the 2017 mass exodus, several initiatives have been undertaken to facilitate the repatriation and relocation of Rohingya refugees, but none have achieved large-scale voluntary return to Myanmar. Bangladesh and Myanmar signed repatriation agreements in 2017 and 2018, while China, the UN, and ASEAN have repeatedly mediated negotiations. Two organised repatriation attempts—in 2018 and 2019—failed because refugees refused to return without guarantees of citizenship, safety, and freedom of movement in Myanmar. In 2023, Myanmar conducted a pilot repatriation verification process for about 1,100 refugees, yet no sustainable return followed due to ongoing conflict in Rakhine State.
Now, the major point is Bangladesh should adopt a multi-layered tied diplomatic and strategic roadmap to achieve the sustainable repatriation of Rohingya refugees. First, it should intensify international pressure on Myanmar through the United Nations, ASEAN, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and major powers such as China, India, the United States, and the European Union to ensure a safe, voluntary, and dignified return. Second, Bangladesh should insist on legally binding guarantees for citizenship, security, freedom of movement, and access to livelihoods for returning Rohingya in Rakhine State. Third, Dhaka should strengthen multilateral mechanisms by supporting accountability initiatives, including international legal proceedings against Myanmar, while maintaining humanitarian cooperation with UN agencies. Fourth, the most important one is to keep India and China at the same table to diminish the matter. This is very much possible for Bangladesh to get their two trusted partners into this repatriation process, as these two have the most significant economic connection with Bangladesh. Fifth, Bangladesh needs to keep a proper channel of networking both with the Arakan Army and Junta government regarding the issues settlement which will be more effective strategies to resolve the long lasting refugee crisis. Finally, Bangladesh should continue improving camp management, expand skills and education programs for refugees, and sustain burden-sharing efforts with the international community until durable repatriation becomes feasible. This balanced approach would increase diplomatic leverage while keeping voluntary repatriation as the only long-term solution.
In reality, Bangladesh’s prospects for achieving large-scale Rohingya repatriation remain limited but not impossible. Although Myanmar has verified more than 300,000 Rohingya from Bangladesh’s submitted list of over 828,000 refugees, it has made their return conditional on improved security in Rakhine State. At the same time, the United Nations maintains that conditions in Rakhine are not conducive to safe, voluntary, and sustainable repatriation, citing ongoing armed conflict, human rights violations, and restrictions on Rohingya communities. Therefore, Bangladesh’s chances of success depend on sustained international pressure on Myanmar, legally binding protections for returnees, international monitoring and particularly the end of the civil war among multiple rebel groups against the Junta government in Myanmar that is behind the implementation of any future repatriation process.
The biggest barriers to successful Rohingya repatriation are Myanmar’s refusal to guarantee citizenship, the continuing armed conflict in Rakhine State, the absence of international security monitoring, and the deep distrust of refugees after previous failed repatriation attempts in 2018 and 2019. The United Nations has repeatedly stated that conditions in Myanmar are not yet safe for voluntary and sustainable return. If repatriation continues to stall, the long-term impact on Bangladesh could be severe. The country will face growing pressure on public finances, humanitarian resources, forests and the environment in Cox’s Bazar, while risks of transnational crime, human trafficking, and regional security instability may increase. Moreover, prolonged displacement could create diplomatic challenges with development partners and complicate Bangladesh’s broader foreign policy and economic priorities, making the Rohingya crisis an increasingly strategic national issue rather than only a humanitarian one.
Md. Al-Amin is an educator. He completed his post-graduation from the Department of International Relations at Rajshahi University,Bangladesh. His research interests are Diplomacy, Foreign policy, Border conflicts, and Security issues.
